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Skilled Immigration and its Impact on Ontario’s Unemployment Rates

Ravdeep Sandal

Pareto Undergraduate Journal of New Economists

Vol. 1 No. 3, Issue 2023

pp. 19 - pp. 36


This study exploits policy differences across Canadian provinces to analyze the effects of skilled immigration on the unemployment rate. In 2005, Ontario signed its first Provincial Nominee Program agreement. In 2007, Ontario adopted and began to utilize the Provincial Nominee Program, a program designed to fill labour shortages and meet economic demands. To analyze the impact of such a policy, Ontario is compared to Quebec, which has not adopted the Provincial Nominee Program. This report utilizes ARIMAX models to find the impact of this skilled labour program on unemployment levels. The results demonstrate that the introduction of the Provincial Nominee Program in Ontario has led to a statistically significant decline in the unemployment rate. Hence, this inflow of skilled labour provides a net benefit, which has implications for more liberal policies regarding skilled migration.

Ravdeep Sandal is a University of Toronto Mississauga alumni who is pursuing an MA in Economics at the University of Waterloo. In January 2019, he obtained his immigration license as a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC). His paper “Skilled Immigration and its Impact on Ontario’s Unemployment Rate” was written and submitted as a final year thesis to complete the ECO420 Research in Applied Economics course. He continues to develop his interest and knowledge in immigration law and policy. Through his studies and professional engagement, Ravdeep has continued to develop an interest in international relations, economics, political science, immigration policy, and most recently machine learning. His professional experiences include working as a Program Editor for The NATO Association of Canada, a support analyst at Statistics Canada, and as a private immigration consultant.

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